MS-ESS3-5: Asking What Is Warming the Planet
Also called NGSS MS-ESS3-5 · Topic: Weather and Climate · Earth and Space Science
The Official Wording
Ask questions to clarify evidence of the factors that have caused the rise in global temperatures over the past century.
Clarification statement: Examples of factors include human activities (such as fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and agricultural activity) and natural processes (such as changes in incoming solar radiation or volcanic activity). Examples of evidence can include tables, graphs, and maps of global and regional temperatures, atmospheric levels of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, and the rates of human activities. Emphasis is on the major role that human activities play in causing the rise in global temperatures.
NGSS Lead States, 2013 · Read it on nextgenscience.org · checked October 15, 2026
What MS-ESS3-5 Means in Plain English
Students ask sharp questions to sort out what has driven the rise in global temperatures since about 1900. They weigh human causes, like burning fuel, making cement and farming, against natural ones, like changes in sunlight or volcanic eruptions, using graphs, maps and tables.
The evidence points to human activity as the main cause, and students learn how scientists ruled the others out. Detailed climate models wait for high school (HS-ESS3-5). This builds on how sunlight and circulation set climate (MS-ESS2-6).
MS-ESS3-5 I Can Statements
- I can ask questions that test whether a cause fits the data.
- I can compare human and natural causes of warming.
- I can explain why carbon dioxide traps heat.
MS-ESS3-5 Worked Example
An evidence card sort where small groups turn each suspected cause into a question and check it against real records.
Which suspected cause best matches the rise in global temperature since 1900?
Set It Up: Printed evidence cards with real records: global average temperature since 1880, carbon dioxide from ice cores and air samples, satellite measurements of sunlight since 1978, and cooling after large eruptions.
- Write one testable question for each suspect: the Sun, volcanoes and greenhouse gases.Three questions, one per suspect
- Read the temperature card.About 1.1 °C warmer than the late 1800s
- Check the sunlight card against the temperature card.Sunlight flat since 1978 while temperature climbed
- Check the eruption card.Big eruptions cool Earth for only a year or two
- Check the carbon dioxide card.About 280 parts per million before 1800, over 420 now
- Sort each question into supported or not supported by the data.Only greenhouse gases rise with temperature
Sunlight stayed flat and eruptions caused only brief dips, while carbon dioxide climbed alongside temperature, so greenhouse gases from human activity fit the evidence best.
Why it works: Carbon dioxide and methane absorb the heat that Earth's surface gives off as infrared light, so adding more of them holds more heat in the lower atmosphere.
Common Mistakes with MS-ESS3-5
Confusing weather with climate
“We had a freezing winter, so the planet isn't warming.”
Try this: Climate is the average over decades across the whole planet. One cold season in one place cannot show or disprove a global trend.
Blaming the ozone hole
“The hole in the ozone layer lets in more heat.”
Try this: The ozone hole lets in more ultraviolet light, a separate problem. Warming comes mainly from greenhouse gases trapping heat given off by Earth.
Treating matching timing as the whole case
“Both lines go up, so that proves it.”
Try this: Pair the matching trends with a cause you can explain, like how carbon dioxide absorbs heat, and check that the other suspects do not fit.
Where MS-ESS3-5 Fits
Practice MS-ESS3-5
Quick Check
- Satellites show the Sun's output has not risen since 1978. What does that tell you?
- Name two human activities that add greenhouse gases to the air.
- Why don't volcanic eruptions explain a century of warming?