MS-ESS3-2: Forecasting Natural Hazards
Also called NGSS MS-ESS3-2 · Topic: Human Impacts · Earth and Space Science
The Official Wording
Analyze and interpret data on natural hazards to forecast future catastrophic events and inform the development of technologies to mitigate their effects.
Clarification statement: Emphasis is on how some natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions and severe weather, are preceded by phenomena that allow for reliable predictions, but others, such as earthquakes, occur suddenly and with no notice, and thus are not yet predictable. Examples of natural hazards can be taken from interior processes (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions), surface processes (such as mass wasting and tsunamis), or severe weather events (such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods). Examples of data can include the locations, magnitudes, and frequencies of the natural hazards. Examples of technologies can be global (such as satellite systems to monitor hurricanes or forest fires) or local (such as building basements in tornado-prone regions or reservoirs to mitigate droughts).
NGSS Lead States, 2013 · Read it on nextgenscience.org · checked October 15, 2026
What MS-ESS3-2 Means in Plain English
Students study data on hazards such as eruptions, earthquakes, floods and hurricanes, including where they strike, how big they are and how often, to judge which can be forecast. They then use that data to choose technologies that reduce harm, like warning systems or stronger buildings.
Some hazards give warning signs, like a swelling volcano or a storm tracked by satellite, while earthquakes still strike without notice. Students build on 4-ESS3-2 and 3-ESS3-1 and later study how hazards shaped where people settle (HS-ESS3-1).
MS-ESS3-2 I Can Statements
- I can read hazard data to tell which events give warning signs.
- I can explain why earthquakes cannot yet be predicted.
- I can match a hazard with a technology that reduces its harm.
MS-ESS3-2 Worked Example
A practice monitoring log for a restless volcano, set beside a log from a fault zone that has no volcano.
Which warning signs would let us forecast an eruption in time to move people out?
Set It Up: Practice data cards for one volcano with six weeks of daily quake counts, tiltmeter readings and gas measurements, plus a map with towns and distance rings.
- Graph the number of small earthquakes recorded each day.About 5 a day at first, over 200 a day by week 6
- Add the tiltmeter readings from the volcano's flank.Ground tilts steadily outward as the slope swells
- Add the sulfur dioxide gas readings.Gas output climbs week after week
- Choose the week you would raise the alert level and clear the nearest distance ring.Most groups pick week 4 or 5
- Compare with the practice log from the fault zone.No buildup before its largest quake
The volcano's quakes, swelling and gas all built up for weeks, leaving time to move people out, while the fault gave no signal before it slipped.
Why it works: Magma rising toward the surface cracks rock and releases gas before it erupts, so instruments can detect it, but a fault can slip suddenly with no reliable signal beforehand.
Common Mistakes with MS-ESS3-2
Thinking every hazard can be predicted
“Scientists should warn us a week before every earthquake.”
Try this: Earthquakes have no reliable warning signs yet. Scientists can only give odds over years, plus seconds of alert once shaking starts.
Reading a forecast as a promise
“The storm hit outside the cone, so the forecast failed.”
Try this: A forecast cone shows where the storm's center will probably go, and storms sometimes move outside it, so people near the edge still prepare.
Thinking technology stops the hazard
“A levee means the town will never flood.”
Try this: Technologies reduce harm, not the hazard itself. A levee lowers flood risk, but a bigger flood can still top it.
Where MS-ESS3-2 Fits
Practice MS-ESS3-2
Quick Check
- Which is easier to forecast, a hurricane or an earthquake? Why?
- Name two warning signs that magma is rising inside a volcano.
- How does an earthquake early warning system help if quakes can't be predicted?