HS-ESS3-5: Forecasting the Pace of Climate Change
Also called NGSS HS-ESS3-5 · Topic: Weather and Climate · Earth and Space Science
The Official Wording
Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth's systems.
Clarification statement: Examples of evidence, for both data and climate model outputs, are for climate changes (such as precipitation and temperature) and their associated impacts (such as on sea level, glacial ice volumes, or atmosphere and ocean composition).
Assessment boundary: Assessment is limited to one example of a climate change and its associated impacts.
NGSS Lead States, 2013 · Read it on nextgenscience.org · checked October 15, 2026
What HS-ESS3-5 Means in Plain English
Students work with real measurements, such as temperature records, sea level or ice mass, together with the output of climate models. From the trend they estimate how fast climate is changing now, then forecast what that rate means for a part of Earth's system in coming decades.
One change and its effects is enough, for example warming and the sea level rise it drives. Students analyze published model results alongside the data rather than building models of their own. It builds on HS-ESS2-4 and supports HS-ESS3-6.
HS-ESS3-5 I Can Statements
- I can find the rate of change in a climate data set.
- I can compare a data trend with climate model projections.
- I can forecast one effect of climate change from evidence.
HS-ESS3-5 Worked Example
A sea level forecast a class can make from the public satellite record that began in 1993.
How fast is global sea level rising, and how much higher could it be by 2050?
Set It Up: NASA's free satellite altimetry record of global mean sea level from 1993 onward, a spreadsheet and published model projections for 2050.
- Plot global mean sea level by year and fit a straight trend line.Rise of about 10 cm since 1993
- Find the slope of the line for the whole record.About 3.3 mm per year on average
- Fit separate lines to the first ten years and the last ten years.Recent decade faster, near 4 mm per year
- Extend the recent rate from 2023 to 2050.27 years × 4 mm ≈ 11 cm more
- Compare the forecast with the published model projections.Projections match or run higher
Sea level is rising about 4 mm a year now, faster than in the 1990s, so a straight-line forecast of about 11 cm more by 2050 is likely a low estimate.
Why it works: Warming ocean water expands and melting land ice adds water, and both speed up as the planet keeps warming.
Common Mistakes with HS-ESS3-5
Forecasting from two points
Using only the 1993 and 2023 values to get one rate
Try this: Fit a line to every year of data, then compare early and late slopes to see whether the rate itself is changing.
One exact number
“The sea will be exactly 11 cm higher in 2050.”
Try this: Report a forecast as a range with its assumptions, since the result depends on future emissions and on ice sheet behavior.
Floating ice raises the sea
“Melting Arctic sea ice is the main cause of sea level rise.”
Try this: Floating sea ice pushes aside its own weight in water. Rising seas come from melting land ice and ocean water expanding as it warms.
Where HS-ESS3-5 Fits
Practice HS-ESS3-5
Quick Check
- Sea level rose 30 mm in one decade and 45 mm in the next. What does that say about the rate?
- Why give a forecast as a range instead of one number?
- Name two ways warming raises sea level.