MS-ESS3-4: Population, Consumption and Earth's Systems
Also called NGSS MS-ESS3-4 · Topic: Human Impacts · Earth and Space Science
The Official Wording
Construct an argument supported by evidence for how increases in human population and per-capita consumption of natural resources impact Earth's systems.
Clarification statement: Examples of evidence include grade-appropriate databases on human populations and the rates of consumption of food and natural resources (such as freshwater, mineral, and energy). Examples of impacts can include changes to the appearance, composition, and structure of Earth’s systems as well as the rates at which they change. The consequences of increases in human populations and consumption of natural resources are described by science, but science does not make the decisions for the actions society takes.
NGSS Lead States, 2013 · Read it on nextgenscience.org · checked October 15, 2026
What MS-ESS3-4 Means in Plain English
Students build an evidence-based argument about how more people, and more use per person, change Earth's land, water, air and living things. They use data on population and on how much water, food, energy and minerals people consume.
Science can describe the effects, but it does not decide what a community should do about them. Students build on MS-ESS3-1 and MS-ESS3-3, and later weigh solutions for managing resources (HS-ESS3-2).
MS-ESS3-4 I Can Statements
- I can use data to show how population growth affects resources.
- I can explain why use per person matters as much as headcount.
- I can build an argument backed by evidence.
MS-ESS3-4 Worked Example
A class turns one day of home water use into evidence about what a growing town demands from its rivers and aquifers.
How much more water will our town need if it grows and each person uses more?
Set It Up: A one-day home water log, a timer for showers, and the typical water use per shower minute and per toilet flush for standard fixtures.
- Log every shower minute, toilet flush and full sink for one day.Class average: 8 shower minutes, 5 flushes
- Convert to liters with 9 liters per shower minute and 6 liters per flush, plus about 20 liters for sinks.72 + 30 + 20 = 122 liters per person
- Scale up to a town of 50,000 people.122 × 50,000 = 6.1 million liters a day
- Rerun it for 60,000 people at the same use.7.32 million liters a day
- Rerun it for 60,000 people who each use 10% more.134.2 × 60,000 = about 8.05 million liters
Growth alone raised the town's daily water need by 20%, and growth plus 10% more use per person raised it by about 32%.
Why it works: Total demand equals the number of people times the use per person, so either one rising takes more water from rivers and aquifers, lowering water levels and the habitats that depend on them.
Common Mistakes with MS-ESS3-4
Blaming only population
“The only problem is that there are too many people.”
Try this: Look at use per person too. A smaller population that consumes far more each can draw down resources just as fast.
Making a claim without numbers
“More people use more water, obviously.”
Try this: Back the claim with data, like liters per person and town size, and show the calculation so others can check your reasoning.
Treating science as the decision maker
“Science says the town must ban lawn watering.”
Try this: Science describes the effects of each choice. The community weighs those effects against costs and values to decide what to do.
Where MS-ESS3-4 Fits
Practice MS-ESS3-4
Quick Check
- A town's population stays the same, but each person uses twice as much water. What happens to total use?
- Name one way more water use can change an Earth system.
- Why does an argument need data, not just a claim?